GNOME connection manager does not create a new interface

I’m trying to set up a VPN connection to my employer’s OpenVPN server and nothing appears to happen when I click Connect. I’m using gateway settings, CA certificate, user certificate and user private key files supplied by the employer. When I click connect, journalctl -f shows:

Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: DEPRECATED OPTION: --cipher set to 'AES-128-CBC' but missing in --data-ciphers (AES-256-GCM:AES-128-GCM:CHACHA20-POLY1305). OpenVPN ignores --cipher for cipher negotiations.
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: OpenVPN 2.6.13 x86_64-pc-linux-gnu [SSL (OpenSSL)] [LZO] [LZ4] [EPOLL] [MH/PKTINFO] [AEAD] [DCO]
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: library versions: OpenSSL 3.3.2 3 Sep 2024, LZO 2.10
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: DCO version: N/A
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: NOTE: the current --script-security setting may allow this configuration to call user-defined scripts
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: TCP/UDP: Preserving recently used remote address: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link local: (not bound)
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link remote: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:22:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: NOTE: UID/GID downgrade will be delayed because of --client, --pull, or --up-delay
Mar 07 13:22:33 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: [UNDEF] Inactivity timeout (--ping-restart), restarting
Mar 07 13:22:33 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: SIGUSR1[soft,ping-restart] received, process restarting
Mar 07 13:22:34 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: NOTE: the current --script-security setting may allow this configuration to call user-defined scripts
Mar 07 13:22:34 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: TCP/UDP: Preserving recently used remote address: [AF_INET]a.b.c.d:1194
Mar 07 13:22:34 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link local: (not bound)
Mar 07 13:22:34 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link remote: [AF_INET]a.b.c.d:1194
Mar 07 13:22:44 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: [UNDEF] Inactivity timeout (--ping-restart), restarting
Mar 07 13:22:44 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: SIGUSR1[soft,ping-restart] received, process restarting
Mar 07 13:22:45 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: NOTE: the current --script-security setting may allow this configuration to call user-defined scripts
Mar 07 13:22:45 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: TCP/UDP: Preserving recently used remote address: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:22:45 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link local: (not bound)
Mar 07 13:22:45 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link remote: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:22:55 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: [UNDEF] Inactivity timeout (--ping-restart), restarting
Mar 07 13:22:55 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: SIGUSR1[soft,ping-restart] received, process restarting
Mar 07 13:22:56 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: NOTE: the current --script-security setting may allow this configuration to call user-defined scripts
Mar 07 13:22:56 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: TCP/UDP: Preserving recently used remote address: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:22:56 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link local: (not bound)
Mar 07 13:22:56 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link remote: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:23:06 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: [UNDEF] Inactivity timeout (--ping-restart), restarting
Mar 07 13:23:06 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: SIGUSR1[soft,ping-restart] received, process restarting
Mar 07 13:23:07 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: NOTE: the current --script-security setting may allow this configuration to call user-defined scripts
Mar 07 13:23:07 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: TCP/UDP: Preserving recently used remote address: [AF_INET]a.b.c.d:1194
Mar 07 13:23:07 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link local: (not bound)
Mar 07 13:23:07 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link remote: [AF_INET]a.b.c.d:1194
Mar 07 13:23:17 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: [UNDEF] Inactivity timeout (--ping-restart), restarting
Mar 07 13:23:17 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: SIGUSR1[soft,ping-restart] received, process restarting
Mar 07 13:23:18 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: NOTE: the current --script-security setting may allow this configuration to call user-defined scripts
Mar 07 13:23:18 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: TCP/UDP: Preserving recently used remote address: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:23:18 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link local: (not bound)
Mar 07 13:23:18 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: UDPv4 link remote: [AF_INET]x.y.z.w:1194
Mar 07 13:23:22 pingala NetworkManager[961]: <warn>  [1741317802.7059] vpn[0x2de42e50,d86539e8-e6da-4e28-8e3d-e7d6a56aed6e,"CoreFW"]: connect timeout exceeded
Mar 07 13:23:22 pingala nm-openvpn-serv[190127]: Connect timer expired, disconnecting.
Mar 07 13:23:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: event_wait : Interrupted system call (fd=-1,code=4)
Mar 07 13:23:22 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: SIGTERM received, sending exit notification to peer
Mar 07 13:23:23 pingala nm-openvpn[190132]: SIGTERM[soft,exit-with-notification] received, process exiting
Mar 07 13:24:13 pingala openvpn[169148]: NOTE: the current --script-security setting may allow this configuration to call user-defined scripts
Mar 07 13:24:13 pingala openvpn[169148]: TCP/UDP: Preserving recently used remote address: [AF_INET]a.b.c.d:1194
Mar 07 13:24:13 pingala openvpn[169148]: UDPv4 link local: (not bound)
Mar 07 13:24:13 pingala openvpn[169148]: UDPv4 link remote: [AF_INET]a.b.c.d:1194

No interface is created and there is no evidence of connection manager having done anything.

NixOS 24.11.

Where-to from here? What to try first?

The problem was incorrect upstream router configuration; in particular, on the wifi subnet, there was no NATing of UDP port 1194 traffic.