Update fails with "Permission denied"

The Ubuntu man pages provide a different method to update nix:

nix upgrade-nix

That functions correctly. Apparently the nix-env --install formulation is not operational on Ubuntu. However upgrade-nix installs the latest stable, currently 2.18.5 (answering my second question).

Luckily there is an earlier thread with a solution to the exact question of installing the latest unstable release.